ICM - Tories heading for solid victory in Norwich North

CON 34 (+1) LAB 30 (-15) LD 15 (-1) GRN 14 (+11)

Is the first poll just in line with expectations?

The above ICM poll with variations on what happened at the last election was commissioned by Norwich’s University & College Union and has just been published. The sample was just 500 which means a much higher margin of error must be applied.

As can be seen the figures are broadly in line with current national polling and, indeed, it would be a huge surprise if the Tories failed to take the seat from Labour with a thumping majority.

The Tory margin in the survey would have been double the 4% but for ICM’s standard practice of realloctating half of those who say they will vote but don’t know which way in accordance with what they did at the last general election.

Clearly the campaign has not started and there is not that much awareness in the seat that a by election will soon by happening. A total of 18% of local voters had no idea that there was an election coming up.

No doubt the main contenders are working on the postal votes right now. Let us hope that afterwards the marked register for this election is not “lost” - something that happened after the last by election at Glenrothes last November.

Mike Smithson

Source: Political Betting RSS Feed

Blogger Threatened to Murder Judges, Feds Say

A white supremacist blogger and internet radio host was arrested and charged Wednesday with threatening to kill judges, the authorities said.

Hal Turner was arrested at his apartment in suburban New Jersey. According to court documents, after a three-judge panel of the Chicago-based 7th U.S. Circuit of Appeals upheld a Chicago handgun ban, he blogged that the judges should be “killed.”

“Let me be the first to say this plainly: These judges deserve to be killed. Their blood will replenish the tree of liberty. A small price to pay to assure freedom for millions,” he wrote on his blog (tunerradionetwork.blogspot.com) on June 2, the day of the ruling, according to court documents. A day later he posted addresses, photos, maps and other identifying information about Chief Judge Frank Easterbrook and Judges Richard Posner and William Bauer, the authorities said.

An FBI agent said (.pdf) Turner told the authorities “he did not intend to injure the judges but believed he would be criminally responsible if someone reading his website acted on what he posted to his website.”

The banner on his Turner Radio Network site includes this logo: “Free Speech: No Matter who Doesn’t Like It!”

Turner, who is to appear in New Jersey federal court Thursday, faces a maximum 10-year term if convicted.

“We take threats to federal judges very seriously. Period,” said Patrick J. Fitzgerald, the U.S. attorney for the Northern District of Illinois.

State charges are also pending against the 47-year-old Turner in Hartford, Connecticut, where he is accused of inciting readers to “take up arms” against state lawmakers.

Two years ago, Turner’s site allegedly was the victim of denial of service attacks by the group, Anonymous. Hackers also claimed he was an FBI informant after posting e-mail allegedly between Turner and an agent.

Photo: Connecticut State Police via AP

See Also:

• Blogger Critical of South Korea Faces 18 Months in Prison
• Russia Charges Blogger for Inciting Police Hatred
• South Korean 'Prophet of Doom' Blogger Acquitted
• Meet the Blogger Who's Got GM's Ear
• Iran Cracks Down on Bloggers
• Palin Hacker Group's All-Time Greatest Hits

Source: Threat Level RSS Feed

Sarah Palin Accepts David Letterman’s Second Apology

Sarah Palin has accepted David Letterman’s second apology given on last night’s show:

“Of course it’s accepted on behalf of young women, like my daughters, who hope men who ‘joke’ about public displays of sexual exploitation of girls will soon evolve,” the statement read.

“Letterman certainly has the right to ‘joke’ about whatever he wants to, and thankfully we have the right to express our reaction. And this is all thanks to our U.S. military women and men putting their lives on the line for us to secure America’s right to free speech – in this case, may that right be used to promote equality and respect.”

Palin is a smart politician and knows she has milked this for all it is worth. While she has excited her base with her attacks on Letterman, she is also becoming subject to jokes that if she is too dumb to understand Letterman’s joke (and believe the right wing smears that it was about Willow or about rape) then she is also too dumb to be president. It has become in Palin’s interest to end the over-reaction and faux-outrage. This also shows an improvement in Palin’s understanding of freedom of speech compared to previous comments she has made.

Palin did have a legitimate beef with regards to jokes about Bristol and sexist jokes. This controversy very well might reduce both of these in the future–from other comedians as well as Letterman.  Palin limited the victory she could have had if she had responded honestly. If she had criticized Letterman for the joke about Bristol, without repeating the nonsense that it was about Willow, and conceded that this is just one in a long string of jokes from many comedians which were wrong, her objection would have sounded even more genuine. If she approached it like that virtually everyone, left and right, would have sided with her on it. Instead, by overreacting and distorting the facts, it became another polarizing issue.

So far the right wing groups are planning to continue with their protests. That’s no surprise–they have been planning attacks on Letterman for quite a while. They just saw last week’s jokes as an opportunity to move ahead. First they tried with the “slutty flight attendant” joke but when they didn’t get anywhere with that they distorted the Bristol Palin joke. They also probably realize that Letterman is unlikely to give them any ammunition in the near future so if they want to continue to attack Letterman they have to stick with this.

The long term fall out of this will probably be minimal as, outside of the extreme right, few believe the distortions being made that Letterman  told a joke about a 14-year-old girl.  Television columnists seem to agree. Maureen Ryan wrote,   “To appear to have made an unfortunate remark about a 14-year old just seemed … not Letterman-esque. That’s not who he is.” Ken Tucker of Entertainment Weekly wrote, “Letterman’s bedrock decency has prevailed over what he must know is Palin’s bedrock opportunism in prolonging the controversy.” Danny Gallagher wrote, “If Letterman is guilty of bad taste, that also means Jay Leno, Conan O’Brien and Bill Maher could be charged as accessories after the fact and should all share a cell in Comedy Jail. They have all made jokes about the Palin kids and how Bristol’s big underage mistake in the sack has made her an ‘easy’ target (pun intended) for every political and athletic horn-dog who is still roasting on a spit at the concession stand of public shame. That’s why it’s called ‘late night’ television. It’s like after dark cable TV but with less appealing boobs.”

Source: Liberal Values RSS Feed

LIRR mechanics are rollin' in the dough

From the NY Post:
An arcane union rule allowed 34 Long Island Rail Road grease monkeys at a Queens maintenance shop to earn a total of $2.5 million in overtime last year, and some of that staggering sum was paid just for heading home and going to bed, The Post has learned.
Under the rule, the railroad is required to fill vacant slots on all work shifts -- regardless of whether the manpower is needed -- allowing senior repairmen to pick up enormous amounts of extra hours.
If a repairman is out sick or goes on vacation, for example, the rule requires the shift's empty slot to be filled by another mechanic, even if he's not needed or on OT.
There were hundreds of instances last year when mechanics worked 24 to 32 hours straight, racking up time-and-a-half and double-time pay. The system then dictates that these OT kings be sent home to collect an additional eight hours of pay for no work.
Many accrue 40 consecutive hours of pay in a single stretch, ringing up a full week's wages in less than a day and half.
And the gravy train doesn't stop there. Another mechanic can then pick up the vacant slot left by the sent-home worker and receive time-and-a-half pay.
Rule 24 has ratcheted up some mechanics' income by more than three times their base salary.

Source: Queens Crap RSS Feed

Carter Escapes (Hamas?) Bomb Attempt

From Fox New:

Former US President Jimmy Carter, seen here in Beit Lahia in northern Gaza, is visiting the battle-scarred Palestinian territory after urging Israel to lift a blockade on the enclave and stop treating its residents like "savages.” Carter to Obama: Remove Hamas From Terror List

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Former President Jimmy Carter will urge the Obama administration to remove Hamas from the terrorist list, FOX News has learned.

Carter, a chief defender of the U.S.-designated terror group, said Tuesday he will meet with officials in the Obama administration in two days to discuss his latest trip to the Middle East.

Meanwhile, two Palestinian sources told FOX News that the group had discovered two roadside bombs planted near a crossing between Israel and Gaza on a path Carter’s convoy took to meet with the group’s leaders.

Carter was granted special waivers by the U.S. Secret Service allowing him to enter Gaza. Employees of the U.S. executive branch are not allowed into the strip since a roadside bomb killed three U.S. security personnel in 2003…

Carter said he feels personally responsible that American weapons were used to fight in Gaza Strip last year, when Israeli Defense Forces entered the strip to stop the launch of rockets from there into Israel…

According to two eyewitnesses, including a 15-year-old boy, the bombs were intended to hit Carter’s vehicle as he exited Gaza. There is some suspicion that Hamas extremists linked to Al Qaeda may be behind the attempt.

The boy told FOX News he saw three Palestinian men planting bombs, four of which were later found near a mound less than a mile from the Israel-Gaza border. The boy said he notified Hamas police, who detonated the bombs and took the three men into custody.

But Hamas aren’t terrorists.

Not at all.

Meanwhile, Reuters is reporting his musings from the Gaza strip:

Carter says Gaza Palestinians treated like animals

Tue Jun 16, 2009

GAZA (Reuters) – Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are being "treated more like animals than human beings," former U.S. president Jimmy Carter said on Tuesday.

On a visit to the enclave, he condemned Israel’s January bombardment of Gaza and its continuing trade blockade, which he said forbids even children’s toys.

"I understand that even paper and crayons are treated as a security hazard," he told Gazans at a local United Nations office. "I sought an explanation of this when I met with Israeli officials and I received none, because there is no explanation." …

He ignored a U.S. government ban on dealings with Gaza’s Islamist rulers Hamas and had talks with its leaders…

Carter, a Democrat, said he had seen for himself there had been almost no reconstruction in Gaza over the past five months.

"Never before in history has a large community like this been savaged by bombs and missiles and then been deprived of the means to repair itself," he said.

And more from the Deutsche Presse Agentur:

Carter says ‘holding back tears’ inspecting Gaza damage

16 June 2009

GAZA CITY – Former US President Jimmy Carter said Tuesday he was dismayed when inspecting the devastation caused by Israel’s 22-day offensive in Gaza last winter.

“I have to hold back tears when I see the deliberate destruction that has been raged against your people,” he told reporters at the destroyed International American School in the northern Gaza Strip town of Beit Lahia, hit in an Israeli airstrike…

Of course what Mr. Carter is saying and doing is beyond anything that can be explained by mere ignorance and naivety.

His rabid anti-Semitism has poisoned his mind and turned him into an enemy of Israel and the United States.

He ignored a U.S. government ban on dealings with Gaza’s Islamist rulers Hamas and had talks with its leaders.

Why hasn’t he been prosecuted?

Source: Sweetness Light RSS Feed

Saqib Stokes Senate Speculation (Updated)

We just love Delegate Saqib Ali (D-39). Just a couple hours after we posted "Ten Random Questions," which included the commonly-heard rumor that he might challenge Senator Nancy King, Delegate Ali linked to the post from his Facebook page. He told his 1,800+ Facebook friends, "Saqib Ali just read speculation that he'd run for State Senate. Wow... Just wow. Apparently it's 'the rumor that refuses 2 die.'"

At the moment, 39% of this blog's traffic consists of direct entries to the "Ten Random Questions" post. Most of them are coming from Delegate Ali's Facebook page and that guarantees a good day for this blog. All of you politicians out there should heed the example of Saqib Ali, a blogger's best friend!
Update: Now Robin Ficker is encouraging Delegate Ali to run for Senate. No folks, I am not making this up.

Source: Maryland Politics Watch RSS Feed